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Application of Odds
 The basic steps in applying odds at the poker table are as follows:
1. Determine the number of discounted outs.
2. Calculate the pot odds. This is the size of the pot in relation to the bet.
3. Calculate the implied pot odds. This is the current pot plus the bets you
expect to win in relation to the current bet.
4. Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand
5. Determine your best strategy.
Let's look at a few examples to show how to apply these steps.
A middle player calls and you raise from the cutoff with K ♣ Q ♥ in a $10-$20 game.
The big blind calls and three players see the flop of T ♣ 7 ♦ 5 ♠. The big blind, a tight
rock who never bluffs, bets out and the middle player folds. What should you do?
- Determine the number of discounted outs. We assume your opponent has at
least a pair since he never bluffs; therefore, you need a king or queen to
improve, which is six outs. You would be drawing dead against TT, 77, or 55,
unless you hit a runner-runner straight. Other likely holdings of your
opponent include AT, KT, QT. and JT. In this case, a king or queen would
not help against either KT or QT. It is doubtful that your opponent would call
a raise preflop with K7, K5, Q7, Q5, T7, 75, or T5: therefore, you only need
to discount your outs for the probability that your opponent holds KT, QT, TT,
77, or 55.
One other consideration is what could happen if you hit the king or queen on
the turn. Your opponent could possibly win on the river by hitting two pair or
better. You should discount your outs a little more for this possibility.
To determine how much you should discount your outs, it is helpful to
evaluate the probable hands of your opponent. Probable hands that you
could beat if you improve include JJ, AT, A7, A5, JTs, and 99. Discounting
outs is always a matter of judgment, but you might expect to win this hand
50% of the time when you improve, considering the possibility that your
opponent might have a set, KT, QT, or improve on the river. Therefore, you
should discount your six outs and play as if you had three outs. -
Calculate the pot odds. The total pot at this point is $75 (three players paid
$20 to see the flop + $5 small blind + $10 bet on flop by the big blind):
therefore, your pot odds are 7.5 to 1 for a $10 her.
-
Calculate the implied pot odds. Do you expect to win more bets when the
king or queen comes? You should win bets 50% of the time when you
improve, but you will lose more bets the other 50% when your opponent has
a better hand. A simplified assumption would be that all future bets break
even.
-
Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand. In
this case, we look at the pot odds since the implied odds are the same. The
pot odds of 7.5 to 1 are compared to the odds against improving with three
outs of 15 to 1 (see out chart).
-
Determine your best strategy. The odds against improving are 15 to 1;
therefore, we should fold since the pot odds are only offering 7.5 to 1.
Let's discuss this hand a little further to show the importance of discounting outs.
Many players draw to overcards on the flop hoping to pair up, and this example
shows that this often is a big mistake. If we played our hand thinking we have six
outs to the king or queen, our odds are 7 to 1 against improving. This compares
favorably to the 7.5 to 1 pot odds; therefore, we would call expecting to make a
small profit. However, this assumes we would always win when the king or queen
comes. As we discussed before, our opponent could very well have KT, QT, TT, 77,
55 or beat us on the river.
Some players also justify calling by saying that they have implied odds of winning
more bets should they improve. This is true if your hand wins, although sometimes
you won't even collect more bets when your opponent folds on the turn to a bet or
raise. The problem is that sometimes you will lose additional bets. If your king or
queen comes on the turn, you will probably raise and then be faced with a reraise, if
your opponent has a set or two pair.
Let's look at another example of $10-$20. An early and middle position player call.
You call on the button with A ♣ 5 ♣ . The small blind calls and five players see the
flop of K ♣ 9 ♣ 4 ♦. The small blind bets and the big blind folds. A strong player in
early position raises. The middle position player folds. What should you do? -
Determine the number of discounted outs. The early position player most
likely has a pair of kings and might have 99. The small blind most likely has a
pair of kings, K9, 99, 44, or possibly a flush draw. You have nine outs to the
nut flush and three ours to the ace.
If one of your opponents has a set or two pair, you could hit your flush and
possibly lose to a full house; therefore, a small discount I needed. An
estimate might be to discount your flush draw from nine outs to eight outs.
Your three outs to the ace need to be discounted since you would lose to AA,
KK, 99, 44, AK, A9, A4, K9, K4, 94, and for the possibility that someone hits
a better hand on the river. Again, (his is a matter of judgment, but you might
estimate that a pair of aces would win about 33% of the time; therefore, you
could discount your three outs to one out. As a result, I would play the hand
as if J had nine discounted outs.
- Calculate the pot odds. The total pot at this point is $80 (five players paid
$10 to see the flop + $10 bet on flop by the small blind + $20 raise by the
early position player). You face a bet of $20, so your pot odds are 4 to 1.
-
Calculate the implied pot odds. If you hit the flush on the turn or river, you
can expect to gain some extra bets, especially if one of the players has a set.
Since there are two opponents in this hand, you might expect to gain at least
one big bet on the turn and one big bet on the river for a total of $120 ($80
+$20 + $20). Your implied odds are 6 to 1 faced with a $20 bet. Note: A big
bet is the amount of a bet on the turn and river, compared to small bets on
the first two rounds of betting.
-
Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand. Nine
outs are 4 to 1 against improving, which are equal to the pot odds of 4 to 1;
however, your odds compare favorably to the implied pot odds of 6 to 1.
-
Determine your best strategy. Calling is profitable. Raising is a consideration
to try to buy a free card (see Deceptive Tactics ).
Let's look at one more example of $10-$20. You raise in early position with J ♥ J ♠.
Two middle players, the button, small blind, and big blind all call for a total of six
players. The flop is T ♣ 8 ♦ 8 ♥. It is checked to you, and you bet. One middle player,
the button, and small blind call. Four players see the turn card of Q . The small
blind checks and you bet. The middle position player raises and everybody folds to
you. There is $220 in the pot. What do you do? -
Determine the number of discounted outs. Assuming the middle player is not
a tricky opponent, your opponent has at least a pair of queens with a band
like AQ or KQ. He might also have TT, 88, or A8. QQ is unlikely since he
probably would have reraised preflop. Q8, J9, and T8 are unlikely since he
probably would have folded to a raise before the flop. You have four outs 10
a straight and two outs to a full house. Your two outs to the full house are
strong since the only two hands that would beat you are QQ and 88. Your
four outs to the straight are relatively strong unless your opponent has QQ,
TT, 88, or 98, QQ and 88 are unlikely, but TT is a decent possibility. Only a
weak player would call a raise preflop with 98s. One other small possibility is
that your opponent has QJ, in which case you would split the pot if a 9
comes. Therefore, I would only discount your six outs by one out to account
for QQ, TT, 88, and QJ, and play the hand as if you had five outs.
- Calculate the pot odds. The total pot is $220 and the bet is $20, so your pot
odds are 11 to 1.
- Calculate the implied pot odds. You should expect to earn another bet on the
river if you improve. You might lose two bets on the river if you come out
betting with the straight and lose to a full house. You might estimate that you
would win $15 on average when improving; therefore, the implied odds are
$235/20, which are 11.75 to 1.
- Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand.
11.75 to 1 implied pot odds compares favorably to the 8 to 1 odds against
improving with five outs.
- Determine your best strategy. Given the large pot, calling is correct.
Let's change the scenario in the above example to look at the effect of a large pot.
Let's assume you raise preflop as before and the middle position player calls, but
now everyone else folds. The flop and turn are the same, and he raises once again
when the Q comes. You do not believe your opponent is bluffing. With only $135 in
the pot and the $15 you expect to earn on average should you improve, your
implied pot odds are now only 7.5 to 1. This is less than the 8 to 1 odds against
improving, so you should fold.
Advanced Concept: In many cases, it is the size of the pot that determines if drawing to a particular
hand is profitable. Given the same exact hand and scenario, your hand could either be folded or
played depending on the size of the pot.
The above advanced concept sounds rather simple and obvious, but many weak
players play their hands the same way no matter how big the pot is. Weak draws
can sometimes be profitable, but you usually need a large pot.
These examples should give you an idea in how to apply odds during a poker
game. For beginning players, it will take time and experience before you are
comfortable applying these concepts.
Internet Tip
Unfortunately, on the Internet you have a very short time to calculate these decisions in your head.
Try memorizing the outs for the most common types of draws. For example, you should
automatically know that a flush draw has nine outs, an open-ended straight draw eight outs, and a
gut-shot draw is four outs. Quickly discount your outs for the possible holdings of your opponents.
Once you know your outs, simply look at the chart posted next to your computer to determine the
odds against improving. You can then easily compare these odds to the pot odds you are getting.
Fortunately, it is easy to calculate pot odds on the Internet since the sites always show the total
amount in the pot. In a live game, this becomes more difficult since there is just a big stack of chips
in the middle of the table. Keep following these simple steps every time you have a draw, and pretty
soon, you will find yourself going through the steps quite quickly.
Once a hand is over, ask the site for a hand history so that you can go back after
your session and evaluate your play when you have more time. Look at the actual
number of outs you could have won with based on your opponents' hands and see
if calling was correct. Keep a log of your mistakes so that you can keep reviewing
them to ensure that you don't make the same mistakes in the future.
NEXT...
Some helpful statistics and probabilities
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